How many humanoids actually shipped? Analyst counts for 2025 and 2026 compared

There is no single agreed figure. For 2025, the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) puts sales of full-size humanoids at about 7,000 units, while Omdia counts roughly 13,000 humanoids of all kinds. For the first half of 2026, IDC reports almost 25,000 units and Smart Analytics Global about 19,100. None of these releases gives a full-year 2026 total.

The gap between these numbers is not a sign that someone has made a mistake. Each organisation counts a different thing. For anyone trying to judge how mature the humanoid market really is, the definitions matter as much as the totals.

Why the counts disagree

Shipment statistics depend on three choices: which robots count as humanoids, which uses are included, and whether the figure is collected from manufacturers or estimated from other data.

• Size. Some counts include only full-size robots, which the IFR defines as taller than 140 cm. Others also include smaller, cheaper models below that height.
• Use. Some counts leave out robots bought for research, teaching or entertainment. Others include them, and in 2025 those were a large share of the market.
• Method. Industry bodies collect data from their members. Market research firms build models from company statements, supply-chain checks and interviews. The results can differ by thousands of units.

None of the four organisations quoted here has published its full method in the releases we checked, so the comparison below rests on what each one states publicly.

2025: between about 7,000 and 13,000 units

The IFR's World Robotics 2026 service robot release, published on 30 September 2026, says about 7,000 full-size humanoids, defined as taller than 140 cm, were sold worldwide in 2025. The IFR states that these units are meant for commercial and professional work beyond research and entertainment. It also notes that most current uses remain specialised and often depend on a human teleoperator.

Omdia's figure is almost twice as high. According to an AGIBOT press release on Omdia's ranking, issued on 8 January 2026, Omdia estimates that about 13,000 humanoid robots were shipped globally in 2025. Omdia puts AGIBOT first with more than 5,100 units, a 39% share.

The two figures are not in conflict. The IFR excludes smaller robots and research or entertainment buyers, and Omdia does not appear to. The lower number is the better guide to how many adult-sized humanoids went into professional use. The higher number is the better guide to total factory output.

Company claims: two "number ones"

Manufacturers' own statements add a further complication. Unitree's stock market prospectus, as reported by Bloomberg via The Star, says the company shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots in 2025 and ranked first in the world. Omdia, as quoted above, gives the top place for the same year to AGIBOT with more than 5,100 units.

Both claims can be true on their own terms. A company's figure counts its own deliveries, while an analyst ranking depends on how the analyst defines a humanoid and how it estimates competitors' numbers. What matters for buyers is the scale. If two companies alone shipped more than 10,000 humanoids between them, most 2025 units must have been smaller or research-oriented models, because the IFR counted only about 7,000 full-size sales in total.

For more detail on what Unitree disclosed, see our article on Unitree's IPO filing.

First half of 2026: 19,100 or almost 25,000

Two firms have published counts for January to June 2026.

1. Smart Analytics Global (SAG). According to China Daily's report on the SAG data, published on 11 August 2026, about 19,100 humanoids were shipped worldwide in the first half, almost three times the level a year earlier. SAG ranks AGIBOT first with about 8,400 units and Unitree second with about 5,900.
2. IDC. Forbes' report on the IDC data, published on 30 September 2026, says almost 25,000 humanoids were shipped in the first half, up 432.1% on the same period of 2025, with revenue above $740 million. IDC puts AGIBOT first with more than 8,600 units, about 35% of the market, and Unitree second with roughly 5,000.

The two firms agree on the leaders and on the direction of travel. They disagree by almost 6,000 units on the total, which is a large margin for a market of this size. A plain reading is that first-half 2026 shipments were somewhere in the range of 19,000 to 25,000 units, depending on how widely the category is drawn.

IDC also reports, according to Forbes, that research and education, performances and exhibitions, and what the article calls government data centres made up 69% of first-half shipments. In other words, most humanoids sold this year are still being used for learning, demonstration and display rather than routine paid work.

Who makes them and who buys them

Two different percentages for China are widely quoted, and they measure different things.

• Where the makers are based. IDC says, according to Forbes, that Chinese vendors built more than 95% of humanoids shipped in the first half of 2026. SAG puts Chinese makers' share above 97%, as reported by China Daily.
• Where the buyers are. TechNode's report on the IDC data says more than 19,000 units, or 77.9% of the total, went to customers in China.

The gap between the two means a few thousand Chinese-built humanoids were sold abroad in six months. Forbes reports that Figure AI is the only American company in IDC's top ten, with a few dozen units in the first half.

Tesla is not in these rankings. According to Cult of Mac's report on Tesla's third-quarter call, Tesla has started early production of Optimus in Fremont, plans to build 10,000 to 20,000 robots for its own testing first, and expects deliveries to outside companies towards the end of 2027. Tesla has not disclosed how many units exist. Our article on Optimus claims versus evidence covers this in more detail.

What 2026 as a whole might look like

None of the sources we checked has published a full-year 2026 forecast. A simple doubling of the first-half figures, which is our own arithmetic rather than an analyst projection, would give roughly 40,000 to 50,000 units. The real total could be higher if production keeps rising, or lower if demand from research and display buyers levels off.

The longer-range forecasts are much larger. IDC expects, according to TechNode, that global shipments will exceed 750,000 units in 2030. Omdia, according to AGIBOT's release, expects about 2.6 million units a year by 2035. These are projections, not orders, and they depend on humanoids finding paid work that justifies their cost.

The IFR is more cautious. Its September release names safety standards, high training and maintenance costs, and a weak business case, especially in industry, as the main barriers to wider use.

What this means for event organisers

• Supply is real but small. Even the highest count suggests tens of thousands of humanoids worldwide in 2026, spread over many countries and uses. A particular model in a particular city may still be scarce, so booking well ahead remains sensible.
• Most units come from a few Chinese makers. AGIBOT and Unitree lead every count. Check the robot catalogue and the guide to which humanoids you can actually hire rather than assuming a model from the news is available.
• Headline totals include smaller models. The gap between the IFR's full-size count and the broader totals suggests many units are below adult height. Ask suppliers for the height and the task a robot can carry out, not only the model name.
• Teleoperation is still common. The IFR notes that many current applications rely on a human operator, so plan for operator staff and space.
• Treat forecasts as context. Analyst projections for 2030 do not change what is available for an event next quarter. A clear brief to suppliers will tell you more about real availability.

Frequently asked questions

How many humanoid robots were sold in 2025?

Estimates differ because definitions differ. The International Federation of Robotics counts about 7,000 full-size humanoids taller than 140 cm sold for commercial and professional use in 2025. Omdia, as cited in an AGIBOT press release, estimates about 13,000 humanoid robots shipped in total. The higher figure includes smaller models and robots bought for research, teaching or entertainment.

Why do IDC and Smart Analytics Global give different numbers for 2026?

For the first half of 2026, IDC reports almost 25,000 humanoids shipped and Smart Analytics Global about 19,100. Both put AGIBOT first and Unitree second. Neither firm has published its full method in the public releases, but differences in which robot sizes and uses are included, and how competitors' volumes are estimated, can easily account for a gap of several thousand units.

Is China really making 95% or more of all humanoid robots?

According to IDC as reported by Forbes, Chinese vendors built more than 95% of humanoids shipped in the first half of 2026, and Smart Analytics Global puts the figure above 97%. A separate IDC figure of 77.9% refers to where the buyers were: customers in China took more than 19,000 units. The difference represents Chinese-built robots sold abroad.

Is there a forecast for total humanoid shipments in 2026?

None of the analyst releases checked for this article gives a full-year 2026 total. Doubling the first-half figures would suggest roughly 40,000 to 50,000 units, but that is simple arithmetic rather than a forecast. Longer-range projections exist: IDC expects more than 750,000 units in 2030, and Omdia about 2.6 million a year by 2035.

How this article was made: written by the humanoid4rent editorial team with AI assistance; every factual statement was checked against the sources listed below on 2026-10-31. Spotted an error? Write to info@humanoid4rent.com.